Notable Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight Players Corey Sandhagen against. Mario Bautista will rematch this weekend (Sat., July 11, 2026) at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada at UFC 329.
Sandhagen started his title fight well against Merab Dvalishvilifinding his range early and blocking early takedown attempts. However, everything went to hell in the second stanza when “The Machine” nearly knocked out the vaunted striker. By the time Sandhagen was fully recovered and moving well, it was already the end of the fifth round and the fight had already slipped away from him.
Nine months later, Sandhagen is back in action against a familiar foe. Bautista has won nine of his last 10 fights, losing only in a very competitive fight against Umar Nurmagomedov. He’s established himself as an elite contender, and now he’s looking to avenge his UFC debut loss seven years ago while making a move toward gold.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – JANUARY 13: (SL) Mario Bautista punches Ricky Simon in a bantamweight bout during UFC Fight Night at UFC APEX on January 13, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images) Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Sandhagen vs Bautista Betting odds
- Cory Sandhagen win: -156
- Corey Sandhagen via TKO/KO/DQ: +380
- Corey Sandhagen via submission: +1200
- Corey Sandhagen by decision: +185
- Mario Bautista win: +122
- Mario Bautista via TKO/KO/DQ: +1800
- Mario Bautista via serve: +1100
- Mario Bautista by decision: +180
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
DES MOINES, IOWA – MAY 3: (SL) Corey Sandhagen defeats Deiveson Figueiredo of Brazil in a bantamweight bout during UFC Fight Night at Wells Fargo Arena on May 3, 2025 in Des Moines, Iowa. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC)
Sandhagen began his UFC career as a kickboxer with jiu-jitsu skills, which is how he defeated Bautista in their first fight. He has also now developed his wrestling to a superlative degree, making him a full-fledged top contender.
Sandhagen is at his best when attacking. Given the diverse skill set each man brings to the table, it’s likely the fight will be competitive wherever it goes. Bautista is at least very consistent in his use of volume and aggression. If the fight is close numerically, but Bautista is the man who moves forward and throws more often… that’s how you lose with a disappointing decision.
Sandhagen’s goal should be to exploit his range advantage without avoiding trades. He should try to start at a distance behind the jab, get into an angle to avoid return fire, and then step forward and throw more punches. Another way to really differentiate yourself from Bautista is to win the leg battle. Both players are good kickers, but if Sandhagen can actively block and parry Bautista’s long range shots, it will further highlight his range advantage.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 7: (SL) Mario Bautista defeats Vinicius Oliveira of Brazil in a bantamweight bout during UFC Fight Night at Meta APEX on February 7, 2026 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Bautista is a very accomplished fighter who excels in the transitional aspects of mixed martial arts (MMA). He is at his best when he pushes forward behind combinations, moves into the clinch, and uses that close range to both land strikes and set up takedowns.
For Bautista, this fight is about getting safely within range. He cannot rush forward recklessly, as Sandhagen’s counterpunching and reactive fighting must be respected. At the same time, he cannot hesitate and end up too far away. Moving forward without putting yourself in danger will be a delicate balance.
Feints and variety will make his job much easier. If Bautista hides his punches behind frequent false starts, it will make Sandhagen’s timing of punches and counters much more difficult. Likewise, if you mix up his offense, those counters will be harder to find. Bautista punches and kicks well from both positions and should avoid being predictable.
Finally, Bautista’s chances of winning really improve if he can get the fight going, so he should look to catch kicks or throw punches under the jab. Even if the shot fails, Bautista may have an opportunity to land a big right hand as Sandhagen tries to retreat.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – OCTOBER 4: Corey Sandhagen enters the Octagon for the UFC Bantamweight Championship during UFC 320 at T-Mobile Arena on October 4, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Sandhagen vs Bautista Prediction
This is an amazing fight between a pair of highly skilled and experienced opponents. 15 minutes of technical kickboxing will make as much sense as three rounds of fast-paced wrestling. Any person can realistically decide to fight in either direction, and it is difficult to say where the most significant advantages lie on either side.
Despite these murky waters, I’m leaning towards The Sandman, who has been fighting incredibly high-level opponents for years. During this period, he has lost only to the best of the best, and Bautista feels half a step below that rank. At least based on the first fight, Sandhagen also has the ability to hurt Bautista, which will make it difficult for Bautista to maintain his usual aggression.
I’m still expecting some dynamic changes and some great grappling, but Sandhagen’s takedowns and sharp jabs overall should keep him in the driver’s seat.
Forecast: Sandhagen decision