But a US-regulated app and a global platform are fundamentally different products. The US version requires full KYC identity verification, is funded through registered futures commission merchants rather than crypto wallets, and is settled in US dollars. The global platform, still geo-blocked for US IP addresses, has no identity checks, is billed in US dollars and covers a much wider range of markets.
The $571 million figure refers to Americans trading on this global platform through VPNs and existing crypto wallets. Allium tracks wallet behavior, not IP address, so a VPN that overcomes geoblocking still leaves US fingerprints in the data.
The moment of Kalsha’s breakthrough
Named FIFA’s Official Prediction Market Partner mid-tournament, Kalshi had branding rights, stadium presence and a media distribution deal with Fox Sports. Notably, user growth was already well under way when Kalshi signed a co-branding agreement with ADI Predictstreet, the official partner of the World Cup prediction market, on June 26, just four days before Apptopia’s data registration. Both Kalshi and Polymarket advertised heavily during the games, with advertisements airing during halftime and also during so-called hydration breaks during American broadcasts.
Data from Apptopia showed that by June 30, Kalsha’s daily active users were 36% higher than June 15. Over the same period, DraftKings fell 36% from its tournament peak, FanDuel fell 41%, and BetMGM and Caesars fell 32%. Traditional sportsbook apps grew early and then faded, while prediction markets grew steadily.