While almost every second Frenchman (48%) did not think Marine Le Pen would stand in the presidential election (Ifop Fiducial’s presidential ambition barometer for Le Figaro and Sud Radio in May 2026), Ifop for LCI and Le Figaro asked the French about their voting intentions after Marine Le Pen announced her candidacy on TF1 at 8pm. this Tuesday, July 7th.
In the first two rounds, Marine Le Pen led with 36% of the votes. Over the course of two weeks, she scores 4 on vote intention, demonstrating the important effect of declaration and clarification on National Rally voters.
We note the catch-up effect of the National Rally candidate, who is now on a par with Jordan Bardella: compared to the last voting intentions, she would compensate for her lateness in categories where the latter was ahead of her previously: +6 points among youth and top managers; +9 points among leaders; +16 points among V. Pecress voters in 2022 and +18 points among E. Zemmour voters. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella seem almost interchangeable now.
Thus, according to the tested hypothesis, the RN candidate would be ahead of his two main opponents: Edouard Philippe, who would receive 19% of the votes in the first scenario, and Gabriel Attal, who would receive 15% in the second. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with 15% of the vote, has never achieved such a high result in an Ifop poll.
In the second round, Marine Le Pen will win according to each of the tested hypotheses: she will be ahead of Edouard Philippe (54% versus 46%), Gabriel Attal (55% versus 45%) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (70% versus 30%). However, these second round forecasts should be interpreted with great caution due to the many unknowns that remain at this stage regarding French knowledge and perceptions of the actual configurations in place.
When asked about Marine Le Pen’s candidacy, 44% of French people said they were satisfied with her decision. However, we note that nearly one in five voters (18%) among the 2022 electorate are dissatisfied with their candidacy, even if this does not indicate that these voters will not vote for the National Rally candidate.