Camineron, my own son | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball

Photo: Peter Aiken-Imagne Images

Writing about Red Hot Chili players can be fun. When the otherwise mediocre Curtis Mead starts hitting the ball, it’s objectively interesting. Especially as a fantasy manager, players who cost way more than draft price or FAAB value simply give us a little extra pleasure when they play well.

Junior Caminero is of course very hot. And considering the 45 home runs he hit last year, his first full season coming off as a 22-year-old, it really shouldn’t be a surprise.

Of course, the fact that he scored bombs in six straight games, and that the stretch in question began with a three-run game, is extremely impressive. But it’s easy to forget that there were some who doubted the phenomenal third baseman.

Caminero played at Steinbrenner Field last season with his Rays teammates while Tropicana Field was being rebuilt.

Caminero enjoying the Steinbrenner field, 2025

As you can see, he had fun there. He was also extremely unlucky on the road. But the numbers on the surface were enough to have some potential developers avoiding Caminero, fearing that his home park in 2026 would lower his artificially high score with a home park in 2025.

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This season he just seems to enjoy hitting at home. Like most attackers.

Caminero loves the Tropicana course too

*Statistics until June 30.

The start of this season is still about three months away, but evidence suggests that Caminero is simply becoming more comfortable on the Trail. It was here that he hit seven of his last nine homers. All this happened since June 23rd.

Caminero is also hitting the ball harder this year, whether it’s home or away. His batting average rose 30 points to .294. He looks unstoppable.

All of this begs the question: What is Caminero doing differently this year?

For starters, he walks more. Much more, in fact, as his BB% has doubled from 6.3% last season to 13.1% this year. In fact, it wobbles a lot less overall. Most of this decline occurred in fields in this zone.

Caminero’s swing rate on pitches in the zone has dropped from 69.5% in 2025 to 60.6% this season. This includes fields in the center of the zone (from 75.6% to 64.1%) and fields in the shadow of the zone (from 56.2% to 50.5%).

His contact numbers have increased on pitches in and out of the zone. And while he takes more hits, he also swings and misses on fewer shots.

This seems to be a strategic decision based on how he will be presented this season. The percentage of fields he could see that were in the zone fell from 49% to 42.5%. So being more passive, even if it means making a few passes deep in the middle of the zone, makes sense.

This selectivity has led to the fact that when Caminero does decide to strike, he often does so on purpose. He mostly swings in areas of the inner third that he can pull and drive.

And it works.

In my article earlier this week first round reworkI noted Caminero’s growth in the three home run metrics and in the power description.

Since the middle of last season, Caminero has focused on intercepting the ball and has not stopped doing so since then. And last summer, he began to see a surge in numbers that increased his power output and OPS to the elite levels they are at today.

However, some of that success, especially in OPS thanks to his increased walk rate, can be attributed to his new approach at the plate.

The selectivity and air-pulling approach combine with another key improvement.

Caminero swings very hard.

His average bat speed has risen from an already elite 78.5 mph to 80 mph this season. His already elite swing speed, which is a swing speed of at least 75 mph, improved from 81.1% to 89.7%, making him by far the fastest swinger in the majors.

MLB’s Fastest Swingers, 2026

Source: Baseball Scientist

No other player has that average bat speed, and no other player swings as hard as often. It’s not particularly close.

So while it does swing less when it swings, it tends to swing quite a lot in the gears it can get airborne.

Note the pink color representing its last two months, compared to blue (last season) and yellow (March and April 2026).

Caminero is throwing more grounders than fly balls this season. But thanks to his new approach, he began to score with the ball more often. Since May 1, he has hit 73% of his fly balls, compared to the 58% of fly balls he hit last season. Maximizing his flyball damage while hitting straighter lines and landings has helped his batting average while keeping his homers offensive.

It also suggests that, as has been the case over the last 10 days, if Caminero can hit the ball more often at an ideal launch angle, he has a better chance of getting the ball off the hardcourt. In other words, this is his only blue Savant lollipop, for those of you who love Savant sweets.

So besides taking him in the first roundwhat can you do? For now, those of us who are part of that lucky club of managers who have included Caminero, sit back and enjoy. Maybe take up pottery, running, or whatever hobby you’ve put on hold while you chase fantasy baseball glory. Don’t even come to work!

Caminero has your back.

And for the rest? Envy is a healthy feeling in times like these. Remember what it was like to watch Caminero from the sidelines this summer. He’ll be racing in the Derby again this year, so you’ll be able to see him too.

Bottle it all and then, well. Take him in the first round next year.

But, seriously, all growth prospects are not linear. Caminero certainly seems like that, and he may well be the standout among all the standouts. Well, him and Nick Kurtz. But what he does well, the changes he’s made to swing on fewer pitches, swing harder on those pitches and target inside pitches to pull the ball powerfully, are what we can look for in other breakouts. Especially for those hitters who we already know have elite contact skills and powerful hits like Caminero.

I’ll leave you with a few of those forwards, or at least forwards that could have it this season.

They may have a junior junior, 2026 (min. 100 PA)

I’ve highlighted the players with traits most similar to Caminero in an attempt to demonstrate that some of the players on this list (sorted by FastSw%) are actually pretty good at converting. Or approaching? Personifications?

They are juniors! Mini-me!

Jake Bowers, Miguel Vargas, JJ Bleday and perhaps Heriberto Hernandez are some of the closest players in the league today that can at least be targeted in fantasy leagues.

So if any of these four properties are available, and if their owners are willing to sell at high prices for names that aren’t particularly inspiring, consider placing an offer. Perhaps you are simply holding another son who has returned home.