We are officially in El Niño
Super Typhoon Bavi is rapidly intensifying in the western Pacific and is forecast to make landfall in the US Mariana Islands, including Guam, as a super typhoon by Monday, with the potential for damaging winds, storm surge and flooding rains.
Where is it now?
Bavi first weakened into a tropical storm late Wednesday, and by early Friday it had intensified into a typhoon, the name given to hurricanes in the western Pacific north of the equator, before reaching super typhoon strength later that day.
It is located less than 400 miles east of Guam and is moving west at 10 to 15 mph.
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Where is it going?
As shown in the forecast map below, Typhoon Bavi is expected to continue moving west-northwest over the next few days.
The path is expected to take the center of Bavi through parts of the US Mariana Islands chain, including Saipan, Tinian, Rota and Guam, sometime Monday local time.
Guam is 14 hours ahead of US Eastern Daylight Time and is approximately 1,700 miles southeast of Taiwan.
How strong could it get?
Due to large amounts of deep warm water, upper-level winds emanating from the system, and decreasing wind shear, Bavi quickly intensified into a Category 5 equivalent typhoon on Friday with winds of 160 mph as a super typhoon.
Bavi is expected to become both a large and extremely strong typhoon when it reaches the Mariana Islands on Monday.
(MORE: Why rapid intensification mattersWith)
What we don’t know yet
While confidence in the overall nature of this forecast is relatively high, there are several key details that we do not yet know, which is typical for multi-day hurricane and typhoon forecasts:
- Where exactly the Bavi Wall will be tracked to hold back the strongest winds and strongest storm surges.
- How quickly Bavi moves will determine how quickly conditions deteriorate, how long the storm lasts, and when conditions improve.
- How big Bavi becomes will influence how widespread its consequences will be, even beyond its borders.
However, greater confidence is that Bavi will produce bands of heavy rain not only during its closest approach, but also before and for some time after the typhoon’s center passes.
This is likely to lead to dangerous flash floods and landslides in hilly or mountainous areas.
Prepare now
Despite this uncertainty, Bavi poses a serious threat to the Mariana Islands, including Saipan, Tinian, Rota and Guam.
For now, we suggest that all preparations for Bavi should be completed by Saturday afternoon as conditions may begin to deteriorate by Sunday.
Bavi won’t end after the Marianas
Once Bavi passes the Mariana Islands, it could pose a threat to Japan’s Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan or eastern China late next week.
Those interested in these areas should check us at Weather.com for updates to this forecast in the coming week.
All about Guam, Mariana typhoons
The Western Pacific Ocean, north of the equator, is the planet’s most active zone for tropical cyclones.
On average, 25 to 26 tropical storms form in the northwest Pacific Ocean per year, 16 of which become typhoons. That’s about a dozen more storms and nine more hurricanes (typhoons) in an average Atlantic hurricane season.
(NOAA)
Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands typically experience tropical storms or typhoons six to seven times a year.
Although typhoons can occur in the western Pacific Basin at any time of year, the season in the Mariana Islands typically runs from June to December.
Recently, powerful typhoons hit the islands.
Less than three months ago, Category 4 super typhoon Sinlaku battered the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam with devastating winds, storm surge and flash flooding.
In May 2023, Category 4 Typhoon Mavar caused severe damage to villages, caused a storm surge of up to 14 feet and dropped 1 to 2 feet of rain on Guam.
In late October 2018, Category 5 Super Typhoon Yutu struck the islands of Saipan and Tinian with winds of 175 mph, the strongest typhoon recorded near these islands by wind speed.
Two people were killed and more than 100 were injured, numerous homes and buildings were damaged, including Saipan International Airport, and vegetation was destroyed on some islands.
This infrared satellite image shows Tinian Island completely engulfed by Super Typhoon Yutu on October 24, 2018.
(UW-CIMSS)
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at Weather.com. He has been covering weather domestically and internationally since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather conditions are his favorite topics. Contact him at bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) And Facebook.