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An old agricultural rule predicts a grim outlook for July. But what is it? Is this rule reliable? The initial trend will be determined in the coming days.
Hamm – The low spur touches North Rhine-Westphalia, in mid-July of all days. But is this related to the old farmer’s saying or is it just a meteorological coincidence? It’s only been a few days since the calendar turned to July, but the old farmer’s rule is already in effect: “If it starts to drizzle in July, you’re in for a long rain.” It sounds grim. And the first weekend of July in North Rhine-Westphalia really brings just that: the first drops of rain, changeable weather plus gusty winds from the northwest.
Will the weather in the coming days dictate the rest of the month? This is the farmer’s rule. © IMAGO/Andreas Franke
Peasant rules are not necessarily fairy tales, as some believe, but are partly the result of centuries of observation. The July rain rule is based on a meteorological principle that still applies today: the basic weather conditions in summer are sluggish. Once created, they often last for weeks. Anyone who’s ever experienced a rainy August that starts turning gray in July knows what the farmers were talking about. This is how well-known wisdom was established, for example, about Dormouse Day, which everyone probably knows about. Does this mean July will now be wet? It’s too early to say for sure. But it’s a start, at least something to think about.
Weather in North Rhine-Westphalia: Is it really drizzling?
Friday, July 3 remains clear to cloudy with no signs of rain. Temperatures rise to 21–26 degrees, but in the Rothaar mountains it remains cooler at around 18 degrees. The wind is blowing moderately from the northwest, but strong gusts are possible in the far northeast of North Rhine-Westphalia throughout the day, the German Weather Service (DWD) reports. Not a summer day to forget, but not a reason to complain either.
Saturday will be interesting. Low level extension is moving through the forecast area from the north. The southwest will be clear and dry, while the northeast will see clouds and a chance of light rain at times. The temperature is not bad at all – from 24 to 28 degrees, in Hochsauerland about 20 degrees.
The real theme of the day is the wind: moderate to sometimes strong gusty winds from west to northwest, with gusts of up to 55 km/h possible (Bft 7). If you’re planning a garden party on Saturday or want to go to the lakes, keep this in mind.
Changes in clouds and localized showers are expected on Sunday, but precipitation will subside in the afternoon. The temperature rises to a pleasant 24-27 degrees, the wind continues to blow gusty from west to northwest. Not the ideal summer Sunday, but certainly rewarding, especially in the afternoon.
The variable picture continues into the start of the new week: on Monday, the northeast of North Rhine-Westphalia was again hit by rain, with maximum temperatures of 23 to 27 degrees. This pattern will continue into Tuesday, with the north-eastern half remaining wet.
In the forest, in the park and in the middle of the city: the most beautiful waterfalls in North Rhine-Westphalia.
View a series of photos
There is a clear reason why things are so variable: the northwesterly current carries warm sea air from the Atlantic to North Rhine-Westphalia. At first glance, this sounds good – and that includes temperature. But the same current simultaneously transports moisture and makes North Rhine-Westphalia vulnerable to low-lying waters blowing in from the North Sea, DWD explains.
According to the forecast, the influence of high pressure is generally increasing – this gives hope for more stable phases in the second half of July. But at present we are still a long way from a reliable mid-summer.
So is this rule fair? Current status: partial. July actually begins with the first drops in North Rhine-Westphalia – at least in the north and northeast. But a consistently rainy month is out of the question, especially since just a few days before the start of July, NRW’s breath was taken away. Temperatures are actually decent, precipitation is still not that extensive and light. So, the rule is: wait and drink tea.