MLB Playoff Contenders: Breaking Down Every Team’s Fatal Flaw Heading Into October

The Romance and the Reality of October Baseball

With the 2026 Major League Baseball playoffs approaching, the question on every contender’s mind isn’t whether they belong — it’s whether their flaws will catch up with them when the stakes are at their highest. The late baseball writer Roger Angell famously called October “the cruel month,” and every team entering the postseason carries a vulnerability that opponents will look to exploit.

Two quotes from Billy Beane come to mind. In the film “Moneyball,” his character asks, “How can you not be romantic about baseball?” Maybe he had this year’s American League West race in mind. But the real Beane, in a despondent moment in 2002 while discussing the Oakland Athletics’ front-office philosophy, told author Michael Lewis: “My s— doesn’t work in the playoffs.” Beane’s Oakland teams never reached a World Series, which was more about the high variance of short playoff series than his approach being flawed — but that quote applies to every playoff contender. They all have fatal flaws.

Of course, two of them will reach the World Series anyway, and that’s the romance part. Let’s break down what each contender’s weakness is and whether it will sink them in October — or whether the team can overcome it for a deep postseason run.

National League Playoff Contenders

Milwaukee Brewers — Lack of Power

The Brewers have clinched their fourth consecutive NL Central title and eighth playoff appearance in nine seasons with what has been the best team in franchise history. Last year’s squad set the franchise record with 97 wins, and this year’s roster should reach 100 victories with a well-rounded squad built around likely Cy Young winner Jacob Misiorowski.

How they got there is fascinating: Only the Cubs have scored more runs than Milwaukee, even though the Brewers might end up last in the majors in home runs. Only 32.6% of Milwaukee’s runs have been scored via the long ball, easily the lowest percentage in the majors, where the 2026 average is 40.6%. And here’s the concern: Over the past 10 postseasons (excluding 2020), the percentage of runs scored via home run has risen each year compared to the regular season.

This trend means hitting home runs is even more important in the postseason. While perfectly executed small ball can play a role at times, it’s far more difficult to put together sustained rallies against elite pitching without mixing in some power. Over the past 10 postseasons, the playoff team with the fewest home runs in the regular season has gone 17-29 and failed to reach a World Series. Conversely, the team with the most home runs — it has been the Yankees five times — has reached only one World Series, losing to the Dodgers in 2024, and those teams have gone just 31-41 across 72 games, compared to 46 for the teams at the bottom in home runs.

None of this means writing off the Brewers entirely. They have been hitting and slugging significantly better since June compared to the first two months of the season:

• April-May: .242/.328/.359, 0.71 home runs per game
• June-September: .269/.349/.430, 1.10 home runs per game

Jackson Chourio sat out April, Jake Bauers has been terrific, and Joey Ortiz has been one of the best hitters in the majors since the All-Star break, so the current lineup is considerably deeper than the one early in the season. The Brewers usually find ways to score — they’ve been held to one run or zero runs only 12 times all season, six fewer than any other team — and if Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, and the bullpen are dealing, they only need to hit more home runs than their opponents.

Los Angeles Dodgers — Second-Half Offensive Struggles

The Dodgers are accustomed to taking a loaded offense into the postseason: They ranked first in runs in 2020, fourth in 2021, first in the pre-DH NL, first in 2022, second in 2023, second in 2024, and second in 2025. They still rank fourth in 2026, but the runs have been much harder to come by since early July.

Injuries have played a significant part: Shohei Ohtani’s knee issue, Freddie Freeman playing through a sore knee, Andy Pages’ fractured left hand, and Will Smith sitting out all of July and August. There remains uncertainty with these injuries — Ohtani won’t return until five games are left in the regular season, Freeman is still managing his knee, and Pages has yet to return. The lineup is aging, with only Pages and Kyle Tucker younger than 30 among the regulars, and it might once again depend on Miguel Rojas and Enrique Hernandez to deliver in the postseason. The Dodgers will need Ohtani to quickly find his groove, or perhaps rookie Josue De Paula will play a meaningful role.

Minus Ohtani, who won’t pitch again this season, the rotation remains strong with the big three of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, and Blake Snell, with Tyler Glasnow likely slotting in as the fourth starter. One caveat: Snell left a recent start after one inning due to groin tightness, so that situation bears watching. The bullpen has its own questions with Edgardo Henriquez on the injured list and Edwin Diaz now looking as if he won’t even be on the postseason roster. Blake Treinen might need to cover key outs again.

Bottom line: Even with Yamamoto and Skubal, this looks like the most flawed Dodgers team during their impressive run of postseason appearances.

Atlanta Braves — Can They Hit in the Postseason?

After winning the World Series in 2021, the Braves had disappointing NLDS exits in 2022 and 2023 following 100-win regular seasons, then a wild-card defeat in 2024 (before missing the playoffs last season). They went 2-8 in those three postseason series, hitting just .186 while averaging 2.5 runs per game.

The 2026 team includes essentially the same group of players that struggled in those postseasons, plus second-year catcher/DH Drake Baldwin. The Braves do some things well offensively, including hitting home runs: Matt Olson has 39, and Baldwin, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies have each surpassed 20 home runs, with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley closing in on 20 each. That’s power up and down the lineup, even if Acuña and Riley have been far more dangerous players in years past.

The one consistent weakness: the Braves don’t draw many walks. They rank 28th in walk rate and 29th in chase rate. With several aggressive swingers in Harris, Albies, Mauricio Dubon, and even Baldwin, good pitchers can exploit those tendencies in the high-leverage environment of October.

Chicago Cubs — The Ninth Inning Conundrum

It doesn’t feel good heading into the postseason and wondering who will get the ball in the ninth inning. Jacob Webb is a journeyman right-hander with a below-average fastball pitching for his fourth team in four seasons. He became the closer in June but has now blown four consecutive save opportunities, losing three of those games.

Maybe Chicago turns to Ryan Zeferjahn, acquired from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline. He at least has a closer’s fastball averaging 97 mph and has picked up the past two saves this month, but he walks too many batters and carries a 4.09 ERA on the season (5.65 with Chicago). Ryan Rolison? The lefty earned a save earlier in September against the Brewers, but right-handed batters have an OPS over .900 against him. Daniel Palencia? Last year’s closer hasn’t been trusted in high-leverage situations since returning from the injured list.

It’s a genuine mess. The Dodgers managed to survive their closer issues last October, but they had starting pitching depth they could use in relief — something the Cubs lack. The Rangers had a bad bullpen in 2023 that got hot at the right time, so anything is possible. But Cubs manager Craig Counsell is going to go through a lot of antacids if his team makes a deep run.

Philadelphia Phillies — Jesus Luzardo’s Injury

The Phillies don’t have a great offense, they definitely don’t play great defense, and the bullpen has been shaky at times. So their path to World Series heroics runs through the starting rotation — specifically Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, and Luzardo. In fact, Luzardo might have been in line to start the first game of the playoffs based on his recent work, with a 1.08 ERA over his past seven starts and 1.70 since June 10.

The Phillies remain hopeful he can return for the postseason, but they haven’t announced any timetable. They probably will have to survive at least the wild-card series without him, which pushes Aaron Nola into the third game if needed. That might work: Nola has been pitching his best baseball in several years with a 2.38 ERA over his past nine starts, though that figure is a bit misleading as he has still been homer-prone with a 4.44 FIP in that span.

If the Phillies advance and Luzardo still can’t make it back, rookie Andrew Painter would step into the four-man rotation. He has been better since returning from the minors, so it’s not a lost cause — but you can understand why president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has drawn criticism for not adding a starter at the trade deadline. And the Phillies still need to actually reach the playoffs, with final-week series against the Brewers and Rays standing between them and October.

San Diego Padres — Rotation Lacks Swing-and-Miss

Assessing the Padres’ rotation means looking from the beginning of August to account for Casey Mize and Robbie Ray, both acquired at the trade deadline. The problem is Mize has been terrible with San Diego, posting a 5.97 ERA with only 22 strikeouts and nine home runs in 37⅔ innings. The way he has been pitching, he doesn’t even project as a viable option for the playoffs right now. Ray has been nearly as bad, with a 5.35 ERA and 24 walks in 33⅔ innings. Michael King is the ace, but even he doesn’t miss a ton of bats, ranking 75th out of 132 pitchers with at least 100 innings in strikeout rate.

San Diego does have a elite bullpen, so it won’t need its starters to log heavy innings, and the offense has been excellent in the second half after an awful first half. At least that concern has been alleviated. The Padres still need to get into the postseason — the season-ending series against the Diamondbacks might determine the final wild card — but they’ll need something from their starters to make that long-awaited World Series run.

Arizona Diamondbacks — Same Rotation Problem

The Diamondbacks still have to get into the playoffs, but if they do, they face the same issue as the Padres: a rotation that doesn’t offer the power pitching and swing-and-miss stuff that executives want in October.

Eduardo Rodriguez has had an amazing season despite a below-average K rate, but batted ball metrics suggest he has been a bit lucky and has relied on a high strand rate. Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt had some memorable moments in Arizona’s 2023 World Series run, but they rank 124th and 120th, respectively, on the strikeout rate list of 132 qualifying pitchers.

American League Playoff Contenders

Tampa Bay Rays — Lineup Depth Concerns

There’s no doubting the top portion of the Tampa Bay lineup, with Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, and Junior Caminero, plus trade acquisition Liam Hicks moving into the cleanup spot against right-handed pitching. But the bottom third of the order has been an issue for most of the season.

Recent World Series participants have generally featured deep lineups rather than relying on only a few stars. Looking at how the 2022-present World Series teams ranked in OPS from their 7-8-9 hitters during the regular season: the 2025 Dodgers were 17th, the 2025 Blue Jays 9th, the 2024 Dodgers 9th, the 2024 Yankees 16th, the 2023 Rangers 5th, the 2023 D-backs 21st, the 2022 Astros 24th, and the 2022 Phillies 5th. It may not be a definitive indicator, but it’s worth noting.

How those bottom-of-order hitters have performed in the postseason tells a stronger story: the 2025 Dodgers hit .218/.275/.311 with 3 HR and 15 RBIs in 17 games; the 2025 Blue Jays .251/.299/.362 with 4 HR and 25 RBIs in 18 games; the 2024 Dodgers .235/.303/.398 with 8 HR and 21 RBIs in 16 games; the 2024 Yankees .240/.355/.377 with 4 HR and 17 RBIs in 14 games; the 2023 Rangers .250/.335/.472 with 9 HR and 22 RBIs in 17 games; the 2023 D-backs .231/.297/.364 with 6 HR and 17 RBIs in 17 games; the 2022 Astros .164/.252/.224 with 2 HR and 8 RBIs in 13 games; the 2022 Phillies .180/.256/.286 with 2 HR and 18 RBIs in 17 games.

A stronger indicator, clearly. Miguel Rojas, the No. 9 batter, kept the Dodgers’ season alive last year with that tying home run in the ninth inning of Game 7. In 2024, Enrique Hernandez posted a 1.069 OPS from the bottom of the order for Los Angeles, while the bottom of the order was absolutely huge for the Rangers in 2023. Only the 2022 Astros won without much from the bottom third — but that was the postseason where Houston’s pitching was nearly untouchable. The Rays will need more depth from the bottom of their order in October.

New York Yankees — Offensive Strikeout Rate

The Yankees are somehow ninth in the majors in runs despite not having Aaron Judge for 100 days and enduring long stretches of offensive futility without him. Now they’re battling additional injuries, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Trent Grisham on the injured list, and Judge just returning also leaving a recent game due to leg tightness.

As always, the Yankees hit home runs — only the Cubs have more. But it comes at a cost: plenty of swing-and-miss. Can a team reach the World Series with a high strikeout rate? Going back to 2022 and the universal DH, no team in the bottom half of strikeout rate has reached the World Series: the 2025 Dodgers ranked 12th, the 2025 Blue Jays 1st, the 2024 Dodgers 11th, the 2024 Yankees 9th, the 2023 Rangers 15th, the 2023 D-backs 4th, the 2022 Astros 2nd, and the 2022 Phillies 15th.

After reaching the World Series in 2024, the Yankees have regressed in the strikeout department, ranking 25th last season and even lower this year — a problem exacerbated by Spencer Jones and his 36% K rate if he has to play center field over the injured Grisham.

Boston Red Sox — Middle Infield Woes

It has been a revolving door at both middle infield positions all season as the Red Sox have started seven players at second base and six at shortstop, with Trevor Story’s 55 games started at shortstop being the most at either position. The combined offense from those spots has been near the bottom of the league, and the Sox rank 19th in defensive runs saved at second base and 27th at shortstop.

Starting with Story: since returning from the IL on August 30, he has hit .349 in 16 games. It looks like a fluke — he has one home run, one walk, 18 strikeouts, and a 49% chase rate. His average exit velocity of 82.5 mph ranks 180th out of 185 players since that date. Once a dynamic fielder, his defensive metrics have been subpar for a couple of years now.

With Anthony Seigler on the IL because of wrist inflammation, Nick Sogard is the regular at second base, though veteran Isiah Kiner-Falefa might start against lefties. Sogard has hit well and plays solid defense (he has played all over the infield, even starting four games at shortstop). Andruw Monasterio filled in at shortstop for much of the summer and can hit lefties but has barely played since Story returned. Honestly, Monasterio and Kiner-Falefa are probably both better options than Story, but interim manager Chad Tracy will need to make the right decisions in the final week and into October.

Cleveland Guardians — Lack of Power

Cleveland falls into the same category as the Brewers when it comes to limited home run power, except the Guardians don’t have Milwaukee’s ability to hit for average or overall lineup depth. They did add Jo Adell and Nathaniel Lowe at the trade deadline, and while that pair isn’t the sole reason, the offense has improved significantly since then:

• Through August 3: .231/.310/.370, 3.95 runs per game (29th)
• Since August 3: .251/.324/.386, 4.63 runs per game (tied for 8th)

Steven Kwan’s turnaround has been the real key, as he has posted a .406 OBP since August 4 and is tied for fourth in the majors in runs. If he continues getting on base and Jose Ramirez gets hot — though Ramirez has been notoriously poor in the postseason in his career at .234/.316/.365 — you never know in the wild and wacky AL.

Chicago White Sox — Bullpen Out of Gas

The White Sox are running on fumes. Manager Will Venable has tried to work around the team’s limited pitching depth by using openers and leaning heavily on a bullpen that has pitched the most innings in the majors. But that overworked pen has paid a toll, as it lost the final two games of the Cleveland series, allowing the Guardians to leap into first place in the division.

On Tuesday, Grant Taylor tried to finish a two-inning save but blew the game in the bottom of the ninth — his fourth straight non-scoreless appearance. The next day, Hagen Smith tried to pitch two innings for the fourth time in seven days but fatigued and walked two batters. Sean Newcomb came on and served up the deciding home run. It was the fifth time in six appearances that Newcomb gave up at least one run, despite finishing August with two straight three-inning outings.

The offense is also running out of steam, hitting .207 in September with an alarming number of strikeouts — they struck out 36 times in three games against Cleveland and are averaging over 10 strikeouts per game in September. It has been a fun ride, but the White Sox are precariously holding on to a playoff spot.

Houston Astros — Starting Pitching Questions

The nightmare scenario for fans outside of Houston: The Astros win the AL West with a sub-.500 record, then get hot and produce the first losing team to reach a World Series. Fun? Maybe not for rival supporters. The Astros’ bullpen has been strong of late with a dominant Josh Hader leading the way, and any lineup featuring Yordan Alvarez has the potential to do enough damage — though Alvarez will need to heat up again just to get Houston into the postseason. The Astros rank third in the majors in home runs, so they do possess power.

The starting pitching makes that scenario a little less plausible, though the rotation has posted a 3.15 ERA in September (fourth in the majors) with Hunter Brown and Hayden Wesneski both pitching well. Even Cristian Javier has now had three consecutive good starts, and Peter Lambert has been the one consistent and healthy starter throughout the season for Houston. So here is the picture: dominant closer, the best hitter in the game this season, offensive power, and a rotation that has been mostly awful all season but is peaking at the right time. Consider yourself warned.

Texas Rangers — Struggles Against Right-Handers

The Rangers have managed to stay in contention all season, hovering around .500 without dramatic swings in momentum — never more than three games out of first place — and four straight wins heading into their series finale against the Red Sox moved them into a tie with the Astros atop the division. Nathan Eovaldi is back after sitting out over a month and pitched the final four innings in relief on Wednesday, giving up just one hit, so that bolsters the pitching staff.

The offense has been the biggest issue all season, particularly against right-handed pitching. Left-handed hitters Brandon Nimmo and Corey Seager have both fared better against southpaws, though Seager is hitting everyone in September. Team MVP Ezequiel Duran has a .406 OBP against lefties but just .299 against righties. Jake Burger has a .908 OPS against left-handers but .666 against right-handers. Josh Jung is hitting .352 against lefties and .281 against righties.

This suggests the Rangers might match up better against the Red Sox (with all those lefty starters) or even the Yankees (Max Fried and Carlos Rodon) than they would against the Rays or Guardians.

Toronto Blue Jays — Offensive Deficiency

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s struggles this season have been well documented — just nine home runs, including only one at home — but producing runs has been a teamwide issue, as nearly every player has seen his numbers drop from 2025. Like last season, the Jays are a high-contact lineup (only the Rays strike out less often), but even Kazuma Okamoto’s 33 home runs haven’t been enough to lift this group from the bottom of the majors in offense. Only the Angels have scored fewer runs. Perhaps Guerrero turns it on if the Jays manage to sneak into the postseason, but the lineup has shown no signs of making a deep October run.

The Bottom Line

Every one of these 15 playoff contenders carries a significant vulnerability. Some are structural — like the Brewers’ lack of power or the Cubs’ closer crisis — while others are situational, such as injuries plaguing the Dodgers or the Phillies’ rotation uncertainty. The history of baseball, however, tells us that October is a unique season where lines can blur, momentum shifts dramatically, and flaws are sometimes overcome through timely heroics, strong bullpen usage, or simply a little good fortune.

The teams that do find a way to navigate their weaknesses and catch fire at the right time have always had a shot. That’s what makes the postseason the most compelling portion of America’s pastime — the same fatal flaws that make the regular season predictable can become the seeds of an improbable Cinderella story. Or they can be the reason a favorite falls short. Either way, the 2026 MLB playoffs are shaping up to be as unpredictable and compelling as the sport demands.

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