Jason Wilson
• Rates Analyst
Over 19 years of betting experience
Updated: July 23, 2026 10:14 am ET.
• 4 minutes read
The inability of Brandon Pfaadt and Michael McGreevy to consistently hit the ball has me looking at the overall performance when the Diamondbacks visit the Cardinals at Busch Stadium tonight.
Photo – Reuters Connect. St. Louis Cardinals second baseman JJ Weatherholt (26) watches his solo home run as he leaves the box
The St. Louis Cardinals host the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight at Busch Stadium as -112 favorites.
With Brandon Pfaadt competing for Arizona along with Michael McGreevy, my Predictions for the match Diamondbacks – Cardinals give preference to the home team and the over.
I explain why in my MLB picks for Thursday, July 23, below.
Who will win Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals today: Cardinals (-112)
I don’t believe in Brandon Pfaadt anymore. I rated the Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander highly as a prospect and started his first full season in the rotation in 2024. His 4.71 ERA that year seemed fake as he boasted an expected ERA of 3.73 and a 3.61 FIP with a 24.3% strikeout rate. In other words, there was a clear path to improvement.
This did not happen. His 2025 was a disaster, and in 2026 he returned to the minor leagues for a time, splitting time between the bullpen and the top club’s rotation. His ERA of 4.58 is not far from his xERA, and his ability to miss bats has regressed, with whiff rate in the 15th percentile and strikeout rate in the 14th..
Opponents have a barrel against him of 9% (29th percentile).and while he’s pitched better since returning to the rotation, there’s too much smoke to ignore the fire.
Jordan Walker and JJ Weatherholt are among the bats who will feast on Pfaadt’s offerings early, giving the St. Louis Cardinals enough of an edge that the bullpen won’t miss it this time.
The instability of the reserve core is the only reason I don’t go on the treadmill, as it has been shown that a big advantage can evaporate in the blink of an eye.
Play up to -120.
OBJECTIVES INTEL: Walker’s breakout is legit, and his 100% bat speed helps him catch up with high-speed hands and really punish guys like Pfaadt, who can touch 94.
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Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+140)
Pfaadt and Michael McGreevy refuse regular and high-profile contacts.
McGreevy has limited the damage fairly well, as evidenced by his 2.92 ERA, but it’s just not sustainable. I like that he outdid Pfaadt, but that’s about it.
He will also step into the hottest offense in baseball. Diamondbacks scored a whopping 66 runs in the last 10 games over the past two weeks.
The Cardinals have seen their team dry up a bit over the period, but Pfaadt’s shortcomings will help reignite St. Louis’ bat.
I’d play it down to even money and even consider over 9.5 at +180 or better.
Jason Wilson’s record for transparency in 2026
- ML/RL rates: 6-1, +5.23 units
- Over/Under bets: 4-3, -0.2 units
Weather: Diamondbacks – Cardinals
A high-pressure system with wind blowing toward home can shorten the ball’s flight distance, limiting home run potential at Busch Stadium, so scoring can be achieved through consistent contact that keeps the ball in play.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Odds
- Money line: Diamondbacks +104 | Cardinals -108
- running line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-178) | Cardinals -1.5 (+170)
- More/less: Over 8.5 (+150) | Less than 8.5 (-156)
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals trend
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the team total over in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.90 units / 26% ROI). Learn more about the betting trends for the MLB matchup between the Diamondbacks and Cardinals.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals game and game information
| Location | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri |
| Date | Thursday, July 23, 2026 |
| First serve | 5:15 pm ET |
| TV | Diamondbacks.TV, Cardinals.TV |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Brandon Pfaadt (4-1, 4.58 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Michael McGreevy (4-7, 2.92 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Latest Injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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