The battle for number 10 is over.
The overwhelming majority of Labor MPs nominated Andy Burnham. Under Labour’s rules, he also needs the support of trade unions.
Today he crossed that threshold. He moves into number 10 on Monday.
But the hidden battle for No. 11 Downing Street continues. Whoever Burnham appoints as chancellor – and next door neighbor in Downing Street – will send a signal of his intentions to both politicians and the bond markets.
Burnham’s team’s official position is that no decision has been made.
Announcements about cabinet posts are not expected to be made until Monday, when Burnham moves into No. 10.
Discussions were held among a small group of people – No 10’s next chief of staff James Purnell, Louise Hay and the former MP who stood apart from Burnham, Josh Simons.
When Burnham won the subsequent by-election in Makerfield, it was widely believed that Energy Secretary Ed Miliband would move to the Treasury.
But there have been both noisy and more subtle attempts to influence Burnham’s choice of chancellor – from unions with oil and gas workers distrusting Miliband’s instincts to Sir Keir Starmer’s unpaid “living costs” to the czar Lord Walker, Iceland’s boss.
He runs supermarkets but claims it is the bond markets that will “freak out” if an “ideological” chancellor is installed at the Treasury.
In recent days, a number of MPs close to Burnham, who bear no ill will towards the energy secretary, believe the likelihood of Miliband’s appointment has diminished significantly.
The caveat is that they are not decision makers, but mood detectors.
Those close to Miliband believe his appointment is not only entirely possible, but highly desirable.
They indicate his powers. He has an economics background, was a Treasury adviser under Gordon Brown and chaired the Council of Economic Advisers.
He has ministerial experience in the last Labor government and in this one. He knows the way. A colleague put it this way: “He can force the Treasury to do things it doesn’t want to do.”
Miliband has regularly and recently advised Burnham and will keep pace with Burnham in the task of spreading growth, in Burnham’s words, “to every postcode”.
On the bond markets, one proponent emphasized his commitment to fiscal rules on debt and borrowing, while another put it more colorfully: “He’s no Che Guevara.”
Many in the parliamentary party expect him to move to number 11. If he doesn’t, some on the party’s soft left will think Burnham has abandoned the first step in the race to change Britain.