After weeks of an uneven monsoon season, El Niño is beginning to make its impact on Indian weather. Meteorologists are warning that the country is entering another dry spell as key atmospheric systems that usually feed widespread rainfall have temporarily disappeared.
The southwest monsoon has already entered a break phase and rainfall is expected to remain light over large parts of central, western and northwestern India for the next three to four days.
Weather experts say the current lull is being exacerbated by the growing influence of El Niño, which is suppressing the formation of rain systems in the Indian region.
There is very little support left in the atmosphere to create extensive precipitation. The current situation is characterized by the absence of three critical weather factors: the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) and the Low Pressure Systems (LPS) over the Bay of Bengal.
These atmospheric features typically act as the engine of the monsoon, helping to create clouds, organize thunderstorms and trigger low-pressure systems that carry moisture deep into the Indian mainland.
Without them, the monsoon will struggle to sustain heavy rainfall, leaving many regions in prolonged drought.
The timing coincides with the increasing impact of El Niño, a periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that alters global atmospheric circulation.
In India, El Niño often weakens the monsoon by reducing moisture transport and suppressing cloud formation over the subcontinent.
As a result, only isolated areas, especially over Northeast India and the Himalayan foothills, are expected to receive heavy rainfall while most of the country awaits more weather conditions.
However, there is cautious optimism for the second half of July.
Forecast models indicate that the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Rossby waves and new low pressure systems are likely to become active over the Bay of Bengal during the last seven to ten days of July.
If these systems develop as predicted, they could inject fresh energy into the monsoon circulation, helping create new rain systems that move inland across eastern, central and northern India.
Meteorologists say the return of these large-scale atmospheric fluctuations could partially offset the overwhelming impact of El Niño, allowing rainfall activity to return towards the end of the month.
However, for now, El Niño appears to be showing its true colors. With the monsoon engine running out of atmospheric support, India faces another spell of below-normal rainfall before another burst of moisture is expected to restart the season later in July.
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Published:
Shibu Kumar Tripathi
Published:
Jul 13, 2026 01:14 PM EST