Buster Olney
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Buster Olney
Senior Writer at ESPN
- Senior Writer for ESPN Magazine/ESPN.com
- ESPN Television Analyst/Reporter
- Author of The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty.
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This summer’s MLB trade deadline arrives a little later than usual (August 3 at 6:00 pm ET), and both leagues are seeing a congestion of teams on the edge of contention, making the outlook for this trade season a little cloudy.
With teams less than two weeks left to decide the direction of the deadline, ESPN MLB insiders Buster Olney and Jeff Passan break down the latest news they’re hearing and analyze how this trade season could play out – from positions with the most impactful players available to the names and teams that could miss the deadline.
The most interesting topic coming into this deadline is ______
Olney: How much talent will actually be available when so many teams are on the cusp of adding, trading veterans or retaining — and when those final decisions are made before Aug. 3, how frantic will the rush for trades become in the final 72 hours? The list of actual announced relievers is quite short at this point: the Giants, Mets and Rockies, as well as a few other teams more subtly leaning towards replacing players. But for so many teams, mostly in the American League, performance over the next seven to 10 days will be critical.
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Pass: As the trade deadline approaches, it almost feels like a race for the pennant. Teams are approaching the games before the end of the month with much more confidence in winning than is typical at this time of year because they understand how tempting it is for their front offices to move on to join the Giants, Mets and Rockies. With so few teams ready to unload, there is a rare opportunity to build a strong market. That’s why the prospect of moving Mason Miller is so tempting for a Padres team that still has postseason hopes: They can use the lack of available players for other elite players to make a golden comeback.
The strongest player position currently available: ______
Olney: Starting pitchers, no doubt. Many clubs are looking for a right-handed hitter and have very few obvious options, but the teams most in need of a starting pitcher – we’re looking at you, Cubs, Phillies and Braves – should have plenty of good options. Announced offloaders include Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes and Robbie Ray, with many more likely to join them.
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Pass: Starting pitchers, but don’t forget the spare arms. While the Red Sox have been trying to keep Aroldis Chapman, and Josh Hader’s no-trade clause makes any deal with him difficult, the Mets have four very good pitchers (Luke Weaver, AJ Minter, Brooks Raley, Huascar Brazoban) and the Giants can play lefty (Eric Miller, Sam Hentges) or righty (JT Brubaker, Caleb Kilian). If the Padres get into contention, Miller and Adrian Morejon could be the best players. And there are plenty of under-the-radar players (Ryan Zeferjan, Elvis Alvarado, Brock Burke, Brennan Bernardino) who can pitch in tough situations for playoff teams.
Weakest available position ______
Olney: The Mariners, Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Braves and Dodgers could use a right-handed hitter (for Los Angeles, a right-handed catcher, given the uncertainty about Will Smith’s health), but even as more teams fall out of contention, it doesn’t look like many options will emerge.
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The only team that could dramatically change this equation would be the Astros, who have a group of interesting players that could change everything; some rival executives believe Houston could completely crush it in this market if they brought in Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes and others. Houston was six games under .500 on Tuesday, and the Astros have a 16% chance of making the playoffs, according to Fangraphs. But for now, all the rhetoric coming out of Houston is about moving forward.
Pass: Right bits. Of course, there are avenues that attractive people can pursue. But many of the potential players to watch (Byron Buxton, Shea Langeliers, Hunter Goodman, Wilson Contreras, Pena, Paredes) are currently only available for outlandish returns. If the Angels decide to deal with Zach Neto, it will at least bring one type of exposure to the group. But as it stands, there isn’t a single power right-handed bat that is sure to move by August 3rd.
With two weeks left before the deadline, teams we know will be dealing with top veterans. ______
Olney: Giants, Mets, Rockies, Reds, Angels and Royals. The National Champions are taking heed and may find themselves in a buy-sell position.
Pass: Buster has it all figured out: The Giants, Mets and Rockies have sale signs up, the Angels are still figuring out how much they’re going to sell, and the Royals and Reds are inclined to hold on to their most valuable players. The A’s have no intention of changing their core players unless they are inundated with offers. Intermediate teams to watch: Detroit, San Diego, Toronto, Houston, Washington, St. Louis and Arizona. The volume of moves at the deadline will greatly depend on their place in the standings.
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With two weeks until the deadline, the teams we know will add aggressively are ______
Olney: Dodgers, White Sox, Cubs, Brewers, Braves, Phillies, Yankees and Rays.
Pass: Brewers, White Sox, Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Rays and Mariners. The Red Sox’s winning ways may force their front office to add more aggressively than expected. Marlins and Geminis will be opportunists. Don’t sleep on the Orioles.
______ hold the key to whether this trade deadline will be an eventful one or a summer bust
Olney: The Padres could move the deadline if they decide to give Mason Miller a sincere hearing, but for now, the decision that could change everything lies with the Tigers. They’ve been playing at 100 wins since June 1st and their instinct is to try to win, but they have no room for error over the next 10 days.
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Manager AJ Hinch described what awaits the Tigers as a daily Game 7, and that’s about right. If the Tigers fail and go 3-7 over the next 10 days, Detroit could throw Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize on the trade market and the baseball world will go crazy.
Pass: Tigers. Ultimately, this deadline will be determined by one thing: will Skubal move? The tigers were patient. They reduced their deficit and moved closer to the final spot in five games. Between that and a win over the winning AL Central – plus the return of Troy Melton and Jackson Jobe not far behind – there’s a real argument for keeping Skubal. Still, the benefits for the Tigers in 2027, 2028 and 2029 (and beyond) from trading Skubal would be huge.
This is a difficult choice. Are you playing now knowing the AL is as weak as it will be for years? Or do you acknowledge that the benefits of moving Skubal (and Mize) could potentially change the franchise?
The one thing we’ll all be talking about after the deadline is ______
Olney: How the Dodgers got better again, adding a catcher or reliever or Skubal or whatever, with Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani, Edwin Diaz and Tyler Glasnow coming back from injury.
As an executive said this week, the Dodgers are hell-bent on becoming the first National League team to ever play back-to-back games. With that organizational desire, the possibility of a new economic system in the future, and a farm system filled with tradable assets, the Dodgers are going to do everything they can to bolster the roster over the next two weeks.
Pass: How, despite all the rhetoric, not much happened. It is dangerous to predict this, especially considering that the standings are still tight. But that’s part of the calculation: if 100 games weren’t enough to divide the masses, how likely is it that 10 games could make a big difference? Not really, which leaves us where we are now.
And considering how many organizations will have to flay themselves in a game before they’re truly out of the game (the 1997 White Sox taught a great lesson on this), the easiest way is to stand firm. This may be a misinterpretation and some crafty teams have taken the opportunity to take advantage of such a small group of available players. But history shows that this will not happen and that last year’s timing madness will not be repeated.